SemiAnalysis Tokenomics: Anthropic Is Already Profitable ($1B+ in Q3), and OpenAI Just Clawed Back to Even

Jul 23, 2026

∙ Paid

Anthropic is already profitable while OpenAI carries 900 million free users, and the SemiAnalysis Tokenomics desk (Crystal Huang, Max Kan, Joey Brookhart, host Jordan Nanos) spends the hour on why, from the subsidized subscriptions to the per-gigawatt math pulling Meta into renting out compute.

The short version, if you don’t have the hour:

More than 80% of Anthropic’s ARR sits on the high-margin API side, which turned operating profit positive in Q2 (non-GAAP, ex stock comp), and Q3 could clear $1 billion.
A $200 Codex plan hands you around $12,000 of API credits and a $200 Anthropic plan around $8,000, so the top-tier 20x plans break even at 5.7% to 10% utilization and may run negative against the 85%+ API gross margin the team pegs for Anthropic.

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